How Much Should We Trust the Polls?
Republicans have plenty to worry about heading into November. Voters remain frustrated with the cost of living, the Iran war has become a political liability, and current surveys point toward a difficult election. Those forecasts deserve scrutiny. Polls overstated Democratic margins in each of the last three presidential elections, by an average of 3.1 points in 2016, 4.6 in 2020 and 2.7 in 2024, according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Iowa offered a vivid warning in 2024. A widely discussed late poll showed Kamala Harris ahead; Donald Trump won the state comfortably. An error of three or four points can change the apparent leader in a competitive race. With November approaching, voters have good reason to examine the polls closely before accepting another confident prediction.
